第157回「制度と組織の経済学」研究会 (共催：IPP研究会） 開催のお知らせ

「制度と組織の経済学」研究会はOEIO（The Osaka Workshop on Economics of Institutions and Organizations：東京大学社会科学研究所と大阪大学IPP研究会による研究会）の主催により、理論研究・実証研究を問わず、ミクロ経済理論、マクロ経済理論、経済史等をテーマに研究しています。 皆様のご参加をお待ちしております。

Presenter： 東島雅昌 氏（東京大学 社会科学研究所）

Title： “ Do Elections Change Political Attitudes in Autocracies?

Identification through the Staggered Introduction of Local Elections in Kazakhstan ”

Abstract： Scholars have studied authoritarian elections primarily from the dictators' perspective: Competitive elections help autocrats to improve governance by grasping grass-roots popular preferences. However, how competitive elections alter the public's views on the regime is underexplored, despite the fact that popular perceptions serve as micro foundations of such information mechanisms. To fill this gap, we conduct a survey in Kazakhstan to examine the impact of local elections on citizens' attitudes toward local elites and politics. We exploit the staggered introduction of local multi-candidate elections due to past turnovers of appointed village chiefs for causal identification, utilizing the item count technique, conjoint analysis, and anchoring vignettes for measuring political attitudes accurately in autocratic contexts. We find that those who have experienced their first-ever election express higher levels of political efficacy but report more frequent experiences of bribing local officials. Also, our conjoint experiment suggests that people do neither punish or reward their village leaders' policy responsiveness even after experiencing the first multi-candidate election. The overall results indicate that local multi-candidate elections in autocracies may make citizens think that their voice is heard but do not necessarily change popular evaluations of their leaders and even induce negative sentiments toward the quality of government.

詳細：https://www.osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp/ja/oeio-157/