Dr. Wakako Maekawa, Osaka School of International Public Policy
Humanitarian crises in Sudan: vulnerable situations for children and women
Although wars between nations have been declining, civil wars continue to occur worldwide. Why have civil wars not disappeared? Why does a civil war resume even when a peace agreement has been signed? Under what conditions does violence against civilians decrease in a civil war?
Dr. Wakako Maekawa, Associate Professor at Osaka School of International Public Policy, focuses on civil war termination and peacebuilding, mainly from the perspective of third-party intervention. Now, she provides a perspective on the Sudanese Civil War.
According to Uppsala Conflict Data Program One-sided Violence Dataset (Davies et al. 2025; Eck, Kristine, and Hultman 2007), in 2024, Sudan experienced the second worst violence against civilians in the world.1 In 2025, more than 30 million people needed humanitarian assistance (OCHA 2025). Considering that the population in Sudan is approximately 50.4 million (World Bank Database), more than half of the population is in need of humanitarian assistance. Children and women are particularly vulnerable. According to the Strategic Initiative for Women in the Horn of Africa, since the civil war started in 2023, 1,294 cases of sexual and gender-based violence have been confirmed. The shortage of food further devastates the situation, where women searching for wild food, such as berries, are being exposed to the risk of sexual and gender-based violence (UN Women 2025).
Civilians are also indirectly exposed to suffering through an increasing number of attacks on healthcare. The World Health Organization (WHO) has verified 205 attacks on healthcare since 2023, while approximately 21 million people require health assistance (WHO 2026). Over 80% of medical facilities have shut down, causing acute maternal risks (UN Women) and children with severe acute malnutrition with medical complications (WHO 2026). Women’s nutritional deprivation leads to acute malnutrition in infants (UN Women 2025).
Why is Sudan experiencing such a humanitarian catastrophe? Perspectives from different theories provide various explanations. In terms of rebel financing, Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) may be strategically looting houses or health facilities for their financing. Looted goods are sold across markets, including in Sudan’s neighboring countries (Amin and Rickett 2023; Salih 2023). Due to the looting, many health facilities now lack medical supplies. This is where the illicit market comes in, increasing the demand for illicit transactions that help rebel financing. Alternatively, looting may be targeted to increase participation in armed groups, since poverty caused by looting, control of markets, and inflation increase participation in armed groups (Humphreys and Weinstein 2008; Justino 2009). My current research shows that looting by the RSF increases indiscriminate violence by the Sudan Armed Forces (Maekawa 2026), potentially as a deterrent for the opponent to obtain more resources and capabilities to fight. As a result, civilians are being targeted by both sides of conflict parties.
Theories of international relations may explain the cause of humanitarian crises from the perspective of the decline in multilateralism, which goes beyond the mere conflict strategies observed in Sudan. UN Peacekeeping Operations are in decline, and large missions have been replaced by smaller special political missions (Maekawa 2023). Sudan also applies to this case, where a Special Political Mission replaced a Peacekeeping Mission three years before the outbreak of the civil war. A study suggests that effective civilian protection requires large military and police personnel who have advantages in credibly signaling resolve and operational capacity as well as separating combatants and patrolling on the ground (Hultman, Kathman, and Shannon 2013). This change is being observed not only in peacekeeping but also other areas of international cooperation. According to Cavalcanti et al. (2025), ongoing funding cuts ‘could result in more than 14 million additional deaths by 2030, including 4.5 million deaths among children younger than 5 years.’
Funding cuts are affecting many organizations, including the WHO (Mishra 2026) and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR 2025), to name a few. Considering that many internally displaced people and refugees spend time in camps and children there rely on education in camps supported by humanitarian agencies, the reduction of services, including education, could have a long-term consequence in conflict-affected countries’ peace and development, provided that education reduces violence and criminal activity (Lochner and Moretti 2004; Thyne 2006). There are also women empowerment programs within humanitarian assistance, including training, education, health services, and job opportunities (Alhalawani and Al-Serhan 2024). The reduction of these programs would influence long-term political stability, provided that women’s status plays a crucial role in the peacemaking and peacebuilding processes (Gizelis 2009).
References
Alhalawani, Sarah, and Amani Al-Serhan. (2024). Reshaping gender norms: Exploring the ripple effect of refugeeism on women’s empowerment. Development Policy Review 42: e12805.
Amin, Mohammed, and Oscar Rickett. (2023). Looted goods for sale in Sudan’s ‘Dagalo’ markets. Middle East Eye. Available at: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/sudan-dagalo-markets-shop-stolen-goods
Cavalcanti, Daniella Medeiros, Lucas de Oliveira Ferreira de Sales, Andrea Ferreira da Silva, Elisa Landin Basterra, Daiana Pena, Caterina Monti, Gonzalo Barreix, Natanael J Silva, Paula Vaz, Francisco Saute, Gonzalo Fanjul, Quique Bassat, Denise Naniche, James Macinko, and Davide Rasella. (2025). Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis. Lancet 406: 283-294.
Davies, S., Pettersson, T., Sollenberg, M., & Öberg, M. (2025). Organized violence 1989–2024, and the challenges of identifying civilian victims. Journal of Peace Research 62(4): 1223-1240.
Eck, Kristine, and Lisa Hultman. (2007). One-sided violence against civilians in war: Insights from new fatality data. Journal of Peace Research 44(2): 233-246.
Gizelis, Ismene. (2009). Gender Empowerment and United Nations Peacebuilding. Journal of Peace Research 46(4): 505-523.
Hultman, Lisa, Jacob Kathman, and Megan Shannon. (2013). United Nations Peacekeeping and Civilian Protection in Civil War. American Journal of Political Science 57(4): 875-891.
Humphreys, Macartan, and Jeremy M. Weinstein. (2008). Who fights? The determinants of participation in civil war. American Journal of Political Science 52.2: 436-455.
Justino, Patricia. (2009). Poverty and violent conflict: A micro-level perspective on the causes and duration of warfare. Journal of Peace Research 46.3: 315-333.
Lochner, Lance, and Enrico Moretti. (2004). The effect of education on crime: Evidence from prison inmates, arrests, and self-reports. American Economic Review 94(1): 155-189.
Maekawa, Wakako. (2023). Strategic deployment of UN political missions to replace UN peacekeeping operations: the demand and supply sides of transition logic. International Peacekeeping 30(1): 62-96.
Maekawa, Wakako. (2026). Indiscriminate airstrikes in Sudan. Working Paper.
Mishra, Vibhu. (2026). Global health systems ‘at risk’ as funding cuts bite, warns WHO. UN news. Available at: https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/02/1166869
OCHA. (2025). Sudan. Available at: https://www.unocha.org/sudan
Salih, Zeinab Mohammed. (2023). Soldiers accused of widespread looting from homes near Sudanese capital. The Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/13/soldiers-accused-of-widespread-looting-from-homes-near-sudanese-capital
Strategic Initiative for Women in the Horn of Africa. (2025). More than Numbers: Report on the State of Violence Against Women and Girls in Sudan – 2023-2025. SIHA Network.
Thyne, Clayton L. (2006). ABC’s, 123’s, and the golden rule: The pacifying effect of education on civil war, 1980–1999. International Studies Quarterly 50(4): 733–754.
UN Women. (2025). Briefing remarks on the situation of women and girls in Sudan. Available at: https://www.unwomen.org/en/news-stories/press-briefing/2025/11/briefing-remarks-on-the-situation-of-women-and-girls-in-sudan
UNHCR. (2025). On the Brink: The Devastating Toll of Aid Cuts on Poeople Forced to Free. Available at: https://www.unhcr.org/media/brink-devastating-toll-aid-cuts-people-forced-flee
WHO. (2026). Attacks push Sudan’s health system to the brink. Available at: https://www.emro.who.int/sdn/sudan-news/attacks-push-sudans-health-system-to-the-brink.html